US Console Market in Worst Shape Since the Early '80s, Analyst Warns

Thinking about buying a new console this holiday season? You might want to sit down for this one.

The US console market is in its worst position since the early 1980s, according to Circana analyst Mat Piscatella. That's not hyperbole—it's data pulled from the company's US retail tracking system, and the numbers are rough.

Here's the damage. For 2026 year-to-date ending August, Xbox hardware unit sales in the US are down 33% compared to a year ago, while PlayStation hardware units are 25% lower. Piscatella noted on Bluesky that Xbox's year-to-date US hardware unit sales are at an all-time low, and PlayStation is at its lowest point since 2013.

So why is this happening? Prices. The ongoing RAM shortages and tariff-driven increases have pushed Sony, Microsoft, and Nintendo to raise console prices multiple times in less than two years. Want a PS5 Pro? That'll be $900. The disc version of the Xbox Series X? $800. And after Nintendo's second Switch 2 price hike, the base model now runs $500.

The averages tell the story even more clearly. The average price a consumer paid for a new Xbox console in 2026 year-to-date ending August is $529—26% higher than a year ago. For PlayStation, the average is $597, up 20% from last year. Both are at all-time US highs. As Piscatella put it, "Price sensitivity is becoming a real problem."

There might be one glimmer of hope: the release of a certain "Big Video Game" in November—yes, he's clearly alluding to GTA 6. Piscatella says it could help ease some of these declines, but even that comes with caveats. It depends on product availability given the RAM and component crisis, plus pricing, of course.

Even with that potential boost, Piscatella's conclusion is stark: "The US hardware market has not been in a more precarious position since the early 80s." He's referencing the infamous video game crash of 1983 to 1985, when US home video game revenue plummeted 97%—from about $3.2 billion in 1983 to $100 million in 1985. We're not there yet, and there's hope that component shortages and tariff costs will eventually stabilize. But going into the holiday season, don't expect major relief outside of big sales events like Black Friday.

What do you think—will you be braving these prices for a new console, or are you waiting it out?