Ever missed a 95% shot in XCOM and felt personally attacked? You're not alone. Josh Sawyer, the legendary RPG director behind Fallout: New Vegas and Pillars of Eternity, knows that pain all too well—and he's got some strong opinions on why players react that way.
In a recent Bluesky thread, Sawyer explained that many people simply don't understand probability. "Many people don't understand probability very well and many of them are resistant to having it explained to them," he said. This leads some designers to create mechanics that cater to players' instinctive—but wrong—understanding of odds, which only makes things more confusing. You've seen it in games like Baldur's Gate 3, where watching a virtual die roll a 1 feels fairer than missing a 95% shot, even though both have the same 5% chance.
But the real battleground is save scumming. Sawyer does "just about everything" he can to discourage it. In Fallout: New Vegas, you can't just blast open locks with a gun—you need to invest in the Lockpicking skill. Why? Because otherwise, players would rather reload saves until they get the loot than spend skill points. "A lot of my job involves thinking about what players are going to do when presented with a mechanic or a choice," Sawyer said. "Even if players wouldn't consciously articulate why they would blast locks with a shotgun rather than invest in Lockpicking, they would veer toward that behavior." He admits it requires being a bit cynical about player psychology, but without that, you end up with very frustrated players.
In Pillars of Eternity, Sawyer wishes he'd been more cynical. In that game, you restore health and abilities by resting—either at camp using supplies or at an inn for gold. But many players hated the idea of losing a battle more than marching back to town, so they'd rest after every fight and then curse the designers for making them walk. "Many players' aversion to the *idea* of losing a battle is greater than their aversion to marching 10 minutes out of a dungeon to buy more healing supplies," Sawyer noted.
This same psychology applies to narrative choices. Sawyer says designers must ask, "Why would anyone want to pick c?" Sometimes an option exists just because it would feel weird if it didn't, but usually the goal is to make players reflect on their values. The decision doesn't need to be torturous, but it should take a bit of thought.
With Bethesda recently announcing that Obsidian is making a new Fallout game, and a Bloomberg report suggesting Sawyer is leading a new Fallout project, it's safe to guess his anti-save scum philosophy will shape whatever comes next. So, will you be embracing the challenge or still hitting that reload button? Let us know in the comments!
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