傳《戰爭機器：事變日》銷售慘淡 買斷僅23萬套、72萬玩家只用XGP加價購

  微軟重磅大作《戰爭機器：事變日》上市後的劇情爭議引發老玩家不滿，XBOX Games Pass 首日開放與加價 30 美元搶先 5 日遊玩，都使得遊戲銷量不利想，市調機構估算實際「全額」的銷售僅有 23 萬套。   市場分析師 Rhys Elliott 在社群網站 X 發文，表示《戰爭機器：事變日》發售後吸引約 170 萬名玩家，但絕大多數都是來自 XBOX Game Pass 的訂閱用戶，實際付費比例相當低。   Gears of War: E-Day has sold 230K copies (@alineaanalytics estimates). Steam accounts for 168K of those, with Xbox (console and PC) selling 62K. But there’s more to this story, as Xbox makes up the bulk of revenue (almost three-quarters). On Xbox, Game Pass is cannibalising much of the premium revenue. Our estimates show that 1.7M folks accessed E-Day via their subscription rather than a copy. But Xbox is having it both ways – or having it halfway, at least – via its Premium Edition Game Pass upgrade. Game Pass subscribers could pay $30 (or their local equivalent) for up to five days of early access starting October 1. Our estimates show that of the 1.7M who accessed E-Day through Game Pass, 722K paid for the upgrade. Between the review embargo lifting on October 1 and the full release, E-Day managed to shift another 250K early-access upgrades – no doubt helped by the campaign’s rave reviews. So despite selling far fewer copies on Steam, Xbox accounts for almost three-quarters of the revenue (roughly $26M of the $37M, versus about $11M on Steam). So “230K copies” undersells the paying audience. Including the 722K upgrades, nearly 950K people actually paid something for E-Day. While E-Day is a sublime game (it's made my top 10), these are soft numbers for a flagship when Xbox badly needs revenue wins. E-Day sold 62K copies on Xbox against 722K Premium upgrades, so for every one copy sold on Xbox, nearly 12 Game Pass upgrades were sold. The $70 premium SKU is – functionally – dead on Xbox. In a world without day-one Game Pass, many of these folks would have bought E-Day at $70. They paid $30 for five days early access to something they don’t own. Xbox is, in effect, charging its most valuable customers the least, based on a hangover from a tried-and-exhausted strategy from a previous administration. Those 722K willing-to-pay players generated about $21.7M via the upgrade. If three quarters of this group – mostly US and European audiences – bought E-Day outright, that’s nearly $40M. Of course, Game Pass does bring in meaningful recurring revenue, and E-Day is adding value for hundreds of thousands of subscribers. However, Game Pass is no longer growing, so Xbox is at a crossroads. Normally you can’t see what a Game Pass player would have paid, because the game’s just there in the subscription. But the $30 early-access upgrade estimate shows that 722K people demonstrated they’ll spend real money on this game. Xbox is reportedly looking to do a Netflix and bolt on an ad-supported tier to pad it further. But that will just set a new floor, and leadership keeps telling us the priority now is revenue growth, which is subscriber-speak for ARPU. Xbox has already pulled Call of Duty from day-one Game Pass after day-one inclusion hammered its sales, with new CoD titles now arriving on the service around a year late. We know that some Microsoft executives believe the service devalues games outright, and rumours (which Microsoft has dismissed so far, to be fair) suggest that day-one releases could be taken off Game Pass. When a game this bloody awesome and well-reviewed does this softly on its home platform, the model – not the game – gets brought into question. Which leaves Xbox at a crossroads. Will it keep making Gears games when the financial returns are this thin and the margins this low? And if it does, does the next one arrive off Game Pass at day one – the way CoD now does, or on PlayStation? More, including player crossover and playtime distribution, on the new Substack. — Rhys Elliott (@superhys) October 9, 2026   分析師引用市調機構 Alinea Analytics 的數據，以原價買下遊戲的數量大約僅有 23 萬套，其中 Steam 佔約 16.8 萬套、XBOX 商城(含 Windows 商城) 只有約 6.2 萬套。    同時因為 XBOX Game Pass Ultimate 方案的玩家可以透過支付 30 美元，開通「高級版」獲得提前 5 日遊玩的特權，調查顯示有約 72.2 萬名玩家選擇此方案。     這樣的數據不論玩家數量還是營收對於微軟而言都不是一個好看數字，與上一代《戰爭機器 5》同樣仰賴 XBOX Game Pass 卻在首周飆出 300 萬人潮，睽違七年、主打系列起源的《戰爭機器：事變日》的玩家人數將近對半砍。   同時，傳出《戰爭機器：事變日》開發成本高達 4 億美元，30 美元升級服務僅貢獻了 2,170 萬美元，加上 23 萬套買斷的 1,610 萬美元，加起來營收不到 4,000 萬美元，連成本的零頭都不到。   分析師 Rhys Elliott 指出 XBOX Game Pass 面臨嚴重的首日收益問題，主要依靠的是玩家長期續訂來回本，但這套模式已經因為玩家數量飽，很難再靠擴大收費群體來創造更多收益。   這也是為何微軟開始尋找其他增加收入的方案，例如看廣告享受免費雲端遊玩時數，並縮減第一日上市陣容，如《決勝時刻系列》後續新作要等一年才會進入 XBOX Game Pass，目的都是確保能在第一時刻賺到核心粉絲的錢，而不是把最賺錢的時刻以近乎免費的方式送出去。   不過站在社群的角度，遊戲品質還是最大的痛點，《戰爭機器：事變日》在搶先遊玩階段就因為 DEI 內容、新主角搶戲、部分武器沒有專屬處絕技、私人對戰與排名對戰缺席等眾多因素，氣跑一堆老粉絲，在社群滿是倒讚的情況下，失去口碑行銷的動能。